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Prediction for CME (2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-20T09:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28649/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption on the Earth-facing disk stretching from S15E00 to S15E35, with liftoff starting around 2024-01-20T08:27Z. This CME overlaps with another filament eruption on the NE limb which resulted in CME:2024-01-20T09:36Z. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of this CME and the CME seen at 2024-01-21T00:36Z beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T12:29Z (-13.0h, +13.0h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

CME input parameters: 
Apex direction (deg): W-18
Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7
Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35

initial CME speed: 978.0 (+/- 50) km/s
initial height: 21.5 R_sun
initial time: 2024-01-20T12:49Z
drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km 
ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s
time step: 10 min
ensemble members: 100k

Lead Time: 5.12 hour(s)
Difference: 3.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2024-01-22T10:54Z

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